GIRS 2023-02: Hazard-Consistent Scenario-Based Correlated Ground Motions for California Gas Pipeline Infrastructure

By: Pengfei Wang; Linda Al Atik; Nick Gregor; Nicolas Kuehn; Melanie A. Walling; Albert R. Kottke; Zehan Liu; Paolo Zimmaro; Yousef Bozorgnia; Scott J. Brandenberg; Jonathan P. Stewart.
DOI: 10.34948/N3001C

Abstract:

Spatial representations of the results of conventional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) typically take form of hazard maps, which represent results of independent analyses at many locations within the map. Hazard maps are not suitable for assessing risk to spatially distributed infrastructure (such as natural gas pipelines) because they significantly overpredict shaking intensities that the system could experience and thus the number and spatial extent of potential failures. This occurs because (1) hazard maps represent the aggregated effects of many events, and those events are likely to be different in different parts of a broad infrastructure system and (2) hazard maps provide relatively consistent levels of ground motions in space, whereas real earthquakes have more complex patterns that are reflected in models of the spatial correlation of ground motions. To overcome these problems, we present in this report an alternate scenario-based method, which utilizes spatially correlated hazard-consistent ground motions.

(full abstract available in the report)